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06/06/2007 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Preakness Stakes winner Curlin has been made the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday's 139th running of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. The $1 million race is the final event in racing's Triple Crown.
A total of seven three-year-olds have been entered for the 1 1/2-mile marathon, including filly Rags to Riches. Missing from the field is Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. He is being rested with the Travers Stakes the goal in August.
Curlin comes into the Belmont Stakes with four wins in five career starts, all this year. The colt, trained by Steve Asmussen, will start from post three with Robby Albarado again in the saddle.
"It's a great opportunity at a classic. It's a very grand stage," said Asmussen. "It's very exciting, especially coming off the Preakness and that victory so fresh in our minds."
Curlin is owned by Stonestreet Stables, Padua Stables, George Bolton and Midnight Cry Stables. He has earnings of better than $1.6 million, which includes a win in the Arkansas Derby and a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
"He's a special horse to be around," said assistant trainer Scott Blasi. "Anytime you grow up in racing, this is the level you want to get to. With each race he's gotten stronger and better."
Hard Spun, second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness, is the 5-2 second choice in the morning line with a new rider set for Saturday. This year's leading jockey, Garrett Gomez, has picked up the mount from Mario Pino. Gomez and Hard Spun will break from post six.
"We've got a guy on him who should know what it takes to get it done," said trainer Larry Jones. "I hated to change from Mario, but we felt that we needed to do something, so we did -- good, bad or indifferent."
Owned by Rick Porter, Hard Spun has earned almost $1 million in his career. Undefeated as a two-year-old, Hard Spun has won two of five starts this year, capturing the Lane's End and Lecomte Stakes, for $882,500.
Hard Spun set the pace in the Kentucky Derby and had the lead in the Preakness coming off the final turn. Jones is looking for something different in the Belmont.
"It's a different distance and there's going to be a different pace scenario," Jones said. "We can't keep going out there the way we've been going. We've got to catch a little softer pace, but you expect that here. Nobody's going to want to be rolling out there in a 1 1/2 mile race."
Leading filly Rags to Riches becomes the first female to start in the Belmont Stakes since Silverbulletday in 1999. She will attempt to become the third filly to win the Belmont, following Ruthless in 1867 and Tanya in 1905.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Rags to Riches is 3-1 in the program and will start from the outside post with John Velazquez riding.
"What we have to gain is, it hasn't really been done in modern times," Pletcher said. "She's sort of accomplished everything a three-year-old filly could accomplish. From a historical perspective, it would place her at the highest level. Arguably, she's got the best pedigree for this race and for any horse you could ever have. She's by a Belmont winner out of a Belmont producer and this isn't a 20-horse field like the Derby."
Rags to Riches, who was sired by 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy, is owned by Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, and is undefeated this year in four starts. She won the Kentucky Oaks in her last start at Churchill Downs. Earlier this year Rags to Riches won the Santa Anita Oaks and the Las Virgenes Stakes. In five career starts she has earned $692,528.
Imawildandcrazyguy, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, will start from the inside post. Mark Guidry is back to ride the gelding at odds of 20-1 in the morning line.
Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago will break from the two-hole with Mike Smith in the saddle. Tiago, a half-brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, is 10-1 in the program.
C P West, fourth in the Preakness, is 12-1 in the program and will ridden by Edgar Prado from post four.
Lone Star Derby winner Slew's Tizzy will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post five. Slew's Tizzy is 20-1 in the morning line.
The Belmont Stakes will be televised on ABC with post-time scheduled for 6:25 p.m. (et).
The post-time temperature will be around 80 degrees with sunny skies.
<< Padres, Dodgers continue battle for NL West
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres attempt to hold onto a slim lead in
the competitive National League West when they play the middle test of a key
three-game set with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at Petco Park.
San Diego moved
<< Nadal will meet Djokovic in French Open semis
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time defending champion Rafael Nadal and
sixth-seeded Serbian Novak Djokovic were a pair of quarterfinal winners
Wednesday at the French Open. The two young stars will square off in Friday's
semifinals here
<< Jays, Rays ready for another wild get-together
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After scoring six runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to
earn the victory in last night's series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays will try
for their fourth straight win when they resume a three-game set against the
Tampa B
<< A's aim for third straight win over struggling Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Struggling lefty Joe Kennedy looks for his first win since
May 10 when the Oakland Athletics host the Boston Red Sox in the third test of
a four-game series tonight at McAfee Coliseum.
Kennedy, who was 4-1 with a 2.31
No doubt: Duncan is one of the all-time greats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Duncan's resume is impressive enough to place him in
the class of the elite players to ever play in the NBA. In fact, putting him
in the same sentence as Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Earvin
"Magic"
Flyers announce coaching changes >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers announced several
coaching changes on Wednesday with the most notable moves being Joe Mullen and
Jack McIlhargey being named assistant coaches.
The Flyers also returned former a
Henin, Sharapova ready for French semis >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-two seeds, Belgian Justine Henin
and Russian Maria Sharapova, will play their French Open semifinal matches
Thursday against a pair of rising Serbs.
The top-seeded/world No. 1 Henin will battle fou
Maple Leafs sign Antropov to extension >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Nik
Antropov to a two-year contract extension. Financial terms of the deal were
not disclosed.
Antropov played 54 games for the Maple Leafs this past season, co
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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