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03/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Finally healthy, the Red Wings' offense has looked like a dangerous unit that could give teams trouble in the playoffs. However, Detroit still needs to get there first.
The Red Wings will try to leap into the eighth spot in the Western Conference this evening at Joe Louis Arena against a Buffalo Sabres squad that will look to rebound after having a three-game winning streak snapped.
The Red Wings have been strong as of late, winning five of their last seven games. However, Detroit is still outside of the playoff picture as it currently holds the ninth spot in the Western Conference. The Red Wings are a point back of the Flames for the eighth spot in the conference, but Calgary is idle today.
Detroit has scored four or more goals in four of its last seven games, including on Thursday when it bested Minnesota by a 5-1 score.
Johan Franzen had a pair of goals and Henrik Zetterberg chipped in with a goal and two assists. Zetterberg notched his first three-point contest since posting five versus Anaheim on November 14, while Franzen scored for the seventh time in just 12 games this year.
Zetterberg has never scored versus Buffalo, posting three assists in six career games against them.
Tomas Holmstrom added a goal and an assist versus the Wild and Andrew Miller, brother of Buffalo netminder Ryan, also scored. Jimmy Howard ended with 21 saves.
"It was nice. We have to play with more desperation," Howard said. "That's how we need to play for the rest of the season."
Howard has never started versus the Sabres but did stop 14-of-15 shots faced in relief of Chris Osgood in an Oct. 13 meeting that ended in a 6-2 Sabres win. That victory for the Sabres snapped a three-game series losing streak. Buffalo has won just once in its last 10 trips to Detroit, however, and was handed a 3-1 defeat at Joe Louis Arena on Jan. 10, 2009 in its last trip there.
Thomas Vanek scored twice during a four-goal surge in the second period of the October victory, while Ryan Miller made 23 saves in net. That had been Vanek's only multi-goal game this season until he scored twice in last night's 3-2 setback to Minnesota. Vanek leads Buffalo with 22 goals after posting 40 a season ago.
Jason Pominville assisted on both tallies and Patrick Lalime made 30 saves in the start over Miller.
"A thousand chances aren't going to win games," said Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff. "We like the number of shots, but there are some situations where they have to turn them into goals. Our key players have to do a better job of turning those shots into goals."
Miller should get the start tonight and he is 2-5-0 with a 3.58 GAA in seven career starts versus the Sabres.
Buffalo remained two points up on Ottawa for first place in the Northeast Division with two games in hand. The Sabres start a five-game road trip tonight but have lost eight of their last nine as the guest.
<< Devils visit Islanders with first place in sight
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils will try to move into a first-place
tie in the Atlantic Division this evening when they take on the New York
Islanders at Nassau Coliseum.
The Devils picked up their second victory in a row last night
<< Habs and Bruins square off as playoff hopefuls
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens look to further their playoff
chances and defeat Boston for the fifth time in six meetings this year tonight
at the Bell Centre, while the Bruins hope to strengthen their hold on the
Eastern Conference'
<< Raptors resume road trip in Oakland vs. Warriors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors haven't been playing like a team headed
towards the postseason and will resume a four-game road trip Saturday night
against the Golden State Warriors in Oakland.
Toronto is currently eighth in the Easte
<< Mavs aim to push win streak to 14 vs. Knicks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The red-hot Dallas Mavericks will try to stretch their
season-high winning streak to 14 games tonight when they resume a four-game
homestand against the woeful New York Knicks.
Dallas kept its longest winning streak of the
Home sweet home: Canucks return to GM Place to battle Senators >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The wait is finally over.
After playing 14 straight times on the road over a span of six weeks, the
Vancouver Canucks finally return to GM Place for tonight's interconference
showdown with the slumping Ottawa Senators.
Terriers and Catamounts clash in America East title tilt >>
Burlington. VT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A berth in the NCAA Tournament is on the
line in Burlington today, as the second-seeded Vermont Catamounts battle the
fourth-seeded Boston University Terriers in the 2010 America East Conference
Championship Ga
Top-seeded Duke faces upstart Miami in ACC semifinals >>
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fourth-ranked Duke Blue Devils are the
top seed in the 2010 ACC Tournament, and they are set to clash with the 12th-
seeded Miami-Florida Hurricanes in the semifinal round this afternoon.
The winner of t
SEC Tournament showdown pits Volunteers against Wildcats >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The semifinal round of the 2010 SEC
Tournament pits the second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats against the 15th-ranked
Tennessee Volunteers.
Up next for the winner of this game is a trip to tomorrow's championship
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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