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08/12/2007 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart watched as Jeff Gordon slid off the track with two laps to go and the No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver went on to capture Sunday's Centurion Boats at the Glen Nextel Cup race at the Watkins Glen International road course. The Home Depot Chevrolet took the checkered flag 2.460 seconds ahead of Denny Hamlin.
The victory was Stewart's third of the season, fourth at Watkins Glen and 32nd of his "Cup" career.
"Jeff and I by far had the best two cars," said Stewart. "We kept the pressure on Jeff and hoped he made a mistake and that's what happened."
After pole qualifying was rained out, Gordon was awarded the pole based on owner points and he brought the field to the green flag for 90 laps of racing. But Matt Kenseth beat him to the first corner and came out of it in first. Down the back straight, Gordon got it back and he completed the first lap as the leader.
Gordon continued to show the way with Hamlin and Stewart second and third, respectively. Kenseth's Ford was way too loose and he fell back through the top-10. Moving up into the top-10 were Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kurt Busch. Also charging forward was Juan Pablo Montoya who cracked the top-10 on lap eight.
Stewart got around Hamlin and took off after Gordon. Following a caution flag (David Ragan spin) Stewart easily beat Gordon into the first turn and the lead was his. The No.20 Home Depot Chevrolet quickly built the margin to two seconds.
Brian Vickers brought out the second caution flag on lap 24 and most of the leaders took advantage of the flag to make their first of two pit stops on the afternoon.
Seven cars had stopped earlier or were still waiting for their pit window and behind Jamie McMurray held the top seven spots. But Gordon and Stewart quickly knifed their way up the charts.
By lap 30 Gordon was third and Stewart fifth. A lap later they were second and third. They were both chasing Patrick Carpentier. Finally on lap 38 the Canadian pitted and it was Stewart, who got by Gordon, in control.
This time Stewart didn't run away and hide from Gordon and Earnhardt Jr. who was in third place. They could stay with Stewart, but was the No.20 Chevrolet just pacing himself for the end?
Inexplicably, Stewart made a mistake and spun on lap 45 in turn one, falling from first to 19th place. That gave the lead to Gordon once again. Gordon built his lead to one second on "Junior" and three seconds on Jimmie Johnson as the field passed the 50-lap mark.
Meanwhile, Stewart began the long trek back up the charts, trying to do it without abusing his Chevy for the final laps.
A caution flag on lap 52 (Reed Sorenson and Johnson spin) left 38 laps to the checkered flag.
Pit road was busy as Gordon led the parade down pit lane in which almost every car stopped. They would all take the gamble on fuel hoping to reach the end from there.
The four drivers who didn't stop, Bobby Labonte, Jeremy Mayfield, Kasey Kahne and Dave Blaney held the top positions.
Of those earlier leaders, Gordon edged Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin off pit road. Looming big behind the leaders was Montoya.
Gordon was flying and by lap 60 only Mayfield was left in front of him. He passed Mayfield with ease, but Gordon couldn't relax. Behind him was Kurt Busch, "Junior" and Carl Edwards. Also in the top-10 were Montoya and "angry driver" by the name of Stewart.
By lap 63 Stewart was in seventh, just behind Montoya. Earnhardt Jr. came to the first turn on the same lap and suddenly slowed. He appeared to be coasting without power and the caution flag came out.
"It looks like the engine blew," said an unhappy crew chief Tony Eury Jr.
The result for Earnhardt Jr. was a 42nd-place finish and a disaster for his "Chase" hopes.
Kurt Busch took advantage of the Earnhardt problem and refueled to guarantee he could make it to the checkered flag. Smart "insurance" by a smart team.
Stewart made quick work of Montoya and was in fourth behind Gordon, Hamlin and Edwards. With 23 laps to go, Stewart made a spectacular pass, both on and off the course, of Edwards for third place.
But a caution flag when Kyle Petty blew his engine gave everyone a chance to catch their breath and set up the battle for the win.
The race restarted with 18 laps to go, but they couldn't get past the first turn before another caution flag. This one started when Truex Jr. got into the back of Montoya and sent him into the turn too fast hitting Harvick. The two got out of their cars and started pushing and yelling at each other.
Finally, Montoya got back in his car and drove away but only a few feet further and his day was essentially done. Others that suffered damage included Jeff Burton and Jamie McMurray.
The race was red-flagged for the multi-car cleanup and it gave everyone a chance to calm down for the final laps.
The restart came with 13 laps remaining. Somehow, despite one car spinning, they got through the first turn without a caution flag.
Gordon, Hamlin and Stewart were nose to tail. Stewart got side-by-side with Hamlin in turn 10 and beat him the start/finish line for second place.
Still, Gordon had about an eight-length lead, but that wasn't enough with still 12 laps to go.
The action was furious, but with 10 laps to go, P.J. Jones spun into the gravel trap and the yellow flew once again. He appeared to have help from Kurt Busch.
The green flag dropped with eight to go and Stewart was stuck on Gordon's rear bumper like glue.
Slowly, every so slowly, Gordon pulled away from Stewart. With five laps to go he held 0.523 seconds (four lengths). A lap later in was 0.590 seconds.
Then Gordon went too deep into turn one on lap 89 and the race was between Stewart and Edwards for the win.
"I just overdrove it into (turn) one, pretty much the same thing that happened to Tony," said Gordon on his way back to the garage. "We're right on the edge in the braking zone getting into one...just stupid. Tony was really good and I really wanted the win."
"I gave it away and got it back the same way I lost it," said Stewart.
On the final lap Edwards was about two lengths back going into turn 10 and went way too deep running through the gravel trap. Stewart cruised to the win and somehow Edwards still finished eighth.
Johnson, Ron Fellows and Robby Gordon completed the top-five while points leader Jeff Gordon finished ninth.
The next race is the series is set for Sunday, August 19th at the Michigan International Speedway.
<< Millar strikes against former team, O's top Red Sox in extras
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Millar crushed a game-winning, three-
run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning, lifting the Baltimore Orioles over
the Boston Red Sox, 6-3, in the finale of a three-game set at Camden Yards.
Corey
<< Gorzelanny blanks Giants as Pirates complete sweep
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Gorzelanny allowed five hits to post
his first career shutout, Josh Phelps tied a career-high with four RBI, and
the Pittsburgh Pirates finished off a three-game sweep of the San Francisco
Giants
<< Astros salvage game with Brewers
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Craig Biggio, Ty Wigginton and Lance Berkman
all homered as Houston downed Milwaukee, 6-4, in the finale of a three-game
set at Minute Maid Park.
Eric Bruntlett added a big two-run single for the Astros,
<< U.S. women roll to win over New Zealand
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Abby Wambach and Carli Lloyd each scored twice
as the United States Women's National Team rolled to a 6-1 victory over New
Zealand in a friendly on Sunday.
Kristine Lilly and Lindsay Tarpley also scored for
Leon wins another Futures Tour title >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Taylor Leon closed with a three-under 69 on
Sunday to win the Betty Puskar Golf Classic, her second Duramed Futures Tour
title in four events.
Leon ended at 13-under 203 for a three-shot win over Vik
Japan to play Canada, Brazil in exhibitions >>
Tokyo, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Japan will play fellow World Cup qualifiers
Canada and Brazil in exhibitions prior to next month's tournament.
Japan, which is in Group A with Argentina, England and Germany, plays Canada
on Aug. 30 and B
Mets salvage series finale versus Marlins >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Moises Alou belted two home runs, including a
solo shot that put New York in front in the sixth, as the Mets held on for a
10-4 victory over Florida in the finale of a three-game set at Shea Stadium.
Jose
Woods wins 13th major at PGA Championship >>
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods collected his first major of the
year and 13th overall Sunday when he won the PGA Championship at Southern
Hills.
Woods shot a final-round, one-under 69 to finish the tournament at eight-
under-par 2
Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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